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This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory

A mere two months in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Sideline Explosion of Joy

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?

It remains a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

A Formidable Weapon

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

A reversion to average may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
  • The attacking talent might become the force he resembled in Germany.
  • The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.

By

Cameron Hall

An economist and writer specializing in international trade and monetary policy, with over a decade of experience in global finance.

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